The CPI print for April 2025 came in below consensus at 0.22% MoMsa (consensus: 0.3%). Similarly, the core index rose 0.24% MoMsa, which was also below consensus (0.298%).
The breakdown revealed rebounds in both core services (0.24% vs 0.06%) and Supercore inflation (0.21% vs -0.24%) from low levels. Core goods inflation was positive at 0.06% MoMsa, up from a deflation of -0.09% MoMsa in March. However, core goods excluding used cars and trucks rose 0.15% MoMsa.
Looking beyond short-term volatility, core services (2.6% 3mma SAAR vs 3.5% in March) and Supercore (0.8% 3mma SAAR vs 3%) decelerated further, influenced by March’s low print. Core inflation also slowed to 2.1% 3mma SAAR from 3.0%.
Overall, inflation data measured by the CPI came in softer than expected for the third consecutive month. Key metrics rebounded slightly from March’s low print but still indicate a more moderate pace of increase compared to earlier in the year. Altogether, this should provide the Fed with more comfort in resuming its easing cycle throughout the year.